That prediction seems about right. Three factors are likely to keep it from opening at Frozen levels. First, the first movie is really good and it still holds up well, but it’s not one of the more discussed Disney projects of the decade. Also, six years after the first seems a bit too long to wait for a sequel people didn’t desperately want, even though it is getting strong early reviews. The last factor is The Grinch, which is still doing very well. Given that it is Thanksgiving weekend, they should still be able to peacefully coexist, but The Grinch’s continued holiday success is likely to stop the film from opening too high.