A relatively low cost way for Tesla to motivate a passionate sales force, sounds like a great ROI
Also grows a vocal community for FSD which will be a key differentiator going forward.
I have a Model 3 without AutoPilot and FSD and would love to get these in return for referrals, but having FSD as a possibility to get for free later takes the incentive to purchase it away and takes good "margin money" out of play. If they can structure it in a way that ensures only a very small decrease at worst in purchases of FSD, I'd be on-board with this as a referral prize, but my intuition tells me if they do offer it as a prize more people with opt to go without and try to earn it through referrals.
Many of the Tesla owners with free supercharging also have AP1 cars that can never have FSD. I would still like to be able to collect referals in case I ever do purchase a car that is FSD capable.
The Tesla referral program is really for others. I already have FSD, and rarely Supercharge. I will buy another Tesla when the pick up truck comes out. I am an advocate for Tesla, and EVs in general, but do not require referral programs or other gimmicks to motivate me.