Fareed Zakaria, your analysis of the Iranian/Israeli/nuclear situation reflects exactly what I have been thinking for so long. I believe that Iran wants to achieve "break-out" capacity with regard to its nuclear endeavors, to be in the same position that Japan and Germany are in vis a vis nuclear power. With break-out capacity, Iran would have the international status it seeks, and would still be within the NPT.
While the 1952 overthrow of the elected government in Iran of Mohammed Mossedegh is an asterisk in the history books of the US and the UK, it is NOT an asterisk in Iranian history. Iran is determined to achieve a status that would forever prevent such an event from occurring again. After all, interference in its internal affairs continues with the assassination of five of its nuclear scientists. Iran has long had to protect itself against the interference of great powers - first the British and the Russians and then the British and the Americans. Now the powers that seek to dictate to Iran what it can and can't do are Israel, the US and Europe. Just as France would have none of it when the US insisted that France was not politically stable enough to join the nuclear club, Iran has decided that it will determine its own destiny in its own way just as France did, just as India, Pakistan, Russia and China and Israel have done. I believe that the Iranians are sophisticated enough to have decided that break-out capacity is where they will go because they can successfully argue then that they are still within the NPT. Mutually assured destruction worked for more than 50 years with the Soviets and the US and it will work with Israel and Iran, although, of course I can see why the Israelis feel more vulnerable, given the size of Israel and its history. However, as you say, the Iranians are rational players and they know what the consequences of a strike on Israel would be - retaliation by the largest and most powerful nuclear power in the world - the US. As Karim Sadjadpour says, the Iranians may be homicidal in some ways but they are NOT suicidal. Any "preemptive" war in Iran started by Israel will ultimately become a US problem, one that we should not have to deal with because war with Iran is completely unnecessary. I believe the west is going to have to come to terms with the fact that Iran is determined, one way or another, to develop break-out capacity.
Fareed Zakaria, your analysis of the Iranian/Israeli/nuclear situation reflects exactly what I have been thinking for so long. I believe that Iran wants to achieve "break-out" capacity with regard to its nuclear endeavors, to be in the same position that Japan and Germany are in vis a vis nuclear power. With break-out capacity, Iran would have the international status it seeks, and would still be within the NPT.
While the 1952 overthrow of the elected government in Iran of Mohammed Mossedegh is an asterisk in the history books of the US and the UK, it is NOT an asterisk in Iranian history. Iran is determined to achieve a status that would forever prevent such an event from occurring again. After all, interference in its internal affairs continues with the assassination of five of its nuclear scientists. Iran has long had to protect itself against the interference of great powers - first the British and the Russians and then the British and the Americans. Now the powers that seek to dictate to Iran what it can and can't do are Israel, the US and Europe. Just as France would have none of it when the US insisted that France was not politically stable enough to join the nuclear club, Iran has decided that it will determine its own destiny in its own way just as France did, just as India, Pakistan, Russia and China and Israel have done. I believe that the Iranians are sophisticated enough to have decided that break-out capacity is where they will go because they can successfully argue then that they are still within the NPT. Mutually assured destruction worked for more than 50 years with the Soviets and the US and it will work with Israel and Iran, although, of course I can see why the Israelis feel more vulnerable, given the size of Israel and its history. However, as you say, the Iranians are rational players and they know what the consequences of a strike on Israel would be - retaliation by the largest and most powerful nuclear power in the world - the US. As Karim Sadjadpour says, the Iranians may be homicidal in some ways but they are NOT suicidal. Any "preemptive" war in Iran started by Israel will ultimately become a US problem, one that we should not have to deal with because war with Iran is completely unnecessary. I believe the west is going to have to come to terms with the fact that Iran is determined, one way or another, to develop break-out capacity.