It is sort of yes to option 1 and 2 . Always been changes . if anyone think that humans dosnt have an impact on their surrounding, they are lying to themselfes.
Conspiracy is a strong word. The climate will go through cycles as it always has even before humans. Humans, IMHO, have very little impact on these global changes - sure we know how to screw up rivers with dams and pollution, but natural events like volcanic eruptions, solar flares and radiation storms have a much bigger impact on earths climate than us humans do.
The hand wringing and spewing of bad statistics (like 98% of climate scientists - I'd like to see that poll) by the politicians to create a state of fear is what is most annoying. 98% of citizens don't bother to any fact checking and just believe what is being told to them.