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Vancouver is a done deal.Anyone buying now will be a very sad chinese in the few yrs...been a van realtor since 2004...all who bought to flip or asign with zero desire to own it namely all Asians will suffer as they should...media had everything to do with this catastrophe to Canadian families....
So the prices are dropping, normally this would mean more sales in Vancouver ?
Or Vancouver people buy higher prices properties ?
Now will be the time to buy
We are entering a buying opportunity for those who have the courage and the ability to act. Sage advice i recall hearing...look at what everyone else is doing and do the opposite. The smart buyer will cherry pick from the most fearful and motivated sellers in the coming months. Sensationalistic journalism can have a negative effect on the mindset of the market. Price will be back at or near the recent peak by sometime next Spring. The 2008 fast and steep correction of 20% turned into a who can resist Vancouver real estate at a discount in early 2009. For all those who abhorred the bidding war insanity we've just experienced get out there and kick tires and pull the trigger with confidence on the long term trend. Major population growth awaits this region in the decades to come.
Poll I skewed by renters why open it to them ask home owners only you will see a much different result
According to the elliott wave, Vancouver real estate prices could not have peaked yet, as there has only been three waves so far. This pull back is only a corrective wave a of wave 4. There will be a bit of a recovery in b., followed by another drop that will come down lower than a. That will be wave c, and at this point, you need to really go in and buy. There will be at least a three wave rally, which will be wave 5 of 5. Unless there are extensions, but at least you can sell safely after 3 waves which will follow the c wave down. For those who already have bought in, do not panic. There is still another leg upwards in this housing market.
I had to double check the data myself to be certain ( I always do ) The data Zolo provides is skewed. I don't see these numbers at all on the value of single family homes in North Vancouver, or Richmond, and the fact that they are providing an "average price" that includes all categories of property - single family, town homes, and condos makes it a completely unreliable metric. To elaborate on my point, their "average number" will be mostly affected by how many properties have sold in each category. If 75% of the sales were condo's then the average number is obviously going to plummet. Enough said.
In saying that, I have no doubt that the Richmond market will adjust and will be the market most significantly affected by the new tax as has been supported by the data already provided in the last two studies done by the province on the number of transactions being done by foreign buyers by region.
I'll have to take Eilers insight on the West Van market with a grain of salt at this point because if you look at the current inventory 75% of it is listed above $3 million dollars and 0% of it is listed below $2 million. The average days on market hasn't changed as of yet, and so it will need to be monitored for another 60 to 90 days while also keeping in mind, it was this exact market which was the target of the tax - the $3 million dollar market and up.
The fact is - sales volumes were dropping well before the tax came into place and this is the leading indicator of an adjustment. As is the norm in Vancouver the past 20 years, I expect it will be a sputter at most, and this one will be caused primarily by uncertainty which really just translates into buyers sitting on the fence to see what happens putting downward pressure on prices as the inventory increases. It could last into the Spring, but at this point I don't think it's likely going much longer then that, if in fact, it goes that long at all.
Furthermore, if GDP does take a hit and the economy is more greatly weakened by this, then it is likely the BOC will have to drop rates which will drive the CAD lower offsetting the expense of the tax and it will be business as usual for foreign money. BTW we are not the first real estate market to implement a tax on foreign buyers - see also Australia, the UK, Hong Kong...
Irresponsible, misleading headline and story. A 3% monthly price increase is not freefall. And it's one month. A traditionally slow sales month.
The market was insane and it was untenable. People were treating houses like stocks and it was making it increasingly impossible for people to live here.
And the slowdown won't last - right now investors (and realtors) are pissed off that the gravy train is slowing down and hoping the province will chicken out on this 15% tax. But they'll start buying again. The gains are still better than other investments.
As for the tax:
- it should be higher, frankly
- there should also be a tax if property is sold less than a year (or maybe two or three years) after it was purchased to discourage flipping. Other jurisdictions do this.
- there should be additional taxes/fees on purchasing homes that you won't live in.
And, there should be incentives to get people into the starter condo market.
We're running out of affordable rental properties (it's now impossible to find a studio in Vancouver for less than $1,400 per month).
And investors buying $500,000+ studios/one-bedrooms to rent out have to charge absurd rents just to cover their mortgages.
And, there should be better controls on rental price increases. A 200 sq-foot microloft on the worst stretch of East Hastings should be raising rents on newly-rented units by 10% a year (cost $800 in 2015, $1200 now).
The list goes on. This is a case where Vancouver has to look at what Hong Kong, San Francisco and Sydney are doing - and do better.
It's about time the media started questioning the rhetoric coming out of the Real Estate Associations.. these guys use manipulated benchmarks, and cherry pick statistics to create the FOMO that lead to the mess where in now.
Thank you Zolo for finally holding REBGV's feet to the fire, and thank you Global for telling Vancouver what's actually happening in the market.. far too many people are going to get hurt if REBGV is allowed to continue their charade.
The day the realtors are 'actually' regulated cannot come soon enough. Heads need to roll.
This is dumbed down irresponsible journalism. On so many levels I don't know where to start.
Of course the market may very well correct due to the tax, but in the short term you have neither valid data nor any information at all about the longer term impact of the tax. No valid data as you are using means and yourself report on a ridiculously unimportantly short term small sample.
And of course people are going to sit on the sidelines under massive uncertainty, with only the very few exceptional deals going through. Tells you nothing at all about how the market will adjust to the tax.
We need to be careful when running the sales numbers. In the REBGV systems, there are 2 different ways to pull sales numbers. First, you can pull them by the date they have been reported to REBGV. This is valid for dates in the past 2 weeks. So - for today - you could just pull up all the sales reported since August 4. The issue with this is that most of these are actual sales from the past. It takes some time for the numbers to be reported - we would call this a cutoff issue. However, once a sale is reported, the true sale date (which is date of subject removal) is entered in the system. This can take up to quite a long time.
So - if someone were to run a report but request sales from August 1-14 of 2016 v 2015, the 2016 data is completely inaccurate. The main reason is that there is a lag in the time it takes to have the numbers reported. Most sales are reported within a week but many take even more than a month. Thus - these numbers are very much not comparable.
Overall, this means that the numbers are not as bad as they are being shown (they are down - and down a lot - but not as much as indicated). Right now the sales pace is approximately down 50% since the beginning of june and down about 65% in terms of dollar volumes. This is because many lower end properties are continuing to sell but at a slower pace. Detached home sales are almost at a standstill.
When the numbers come out for August. What is important for people to know as well is that these will include many sales from July, due to the time lag to report. However, many of the July sales will also be post-announcement for the tax.
Overall - it will not really be until we have September or October numbers will we see the true impacts.
We see that detached prices will revert to their price levels of 12 months ago within the next 12 months. Attached and condominium properties will also revert but may take longer.
One item which we are not able to predict is how developers will react. If they start to restrict supply in response (to maintain their own high prices), then prices may stay high - especially in lower priced and smaller properties. What will be required to counteract this is the Vacancy tax (aimed at getting the empty small units back into the housing stock) or some type of carrying charge tax on developable property aimed at forcing supply onto the market (less likely).
yes and it's a good thing
it'll finally be affordable for some duel income families to own a house
houses in vancouver should be occupied by those who live and work and earns a living here
not some student going to university here supported by rich parents overseas
It is Chinese lunar calendar July ghost month
most people do not buy houses for this time. Too soon to tell.